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Bush Leading In Electoral Votes, With A Narrow Swing-State Edge; But Kerry isn't far off, and his debate victory may help close the gap.(A)
Byline: SEAN HIGGINS
Overnight polls say John Kerry won Thursday's presidential debate. Gallup found he won 53%-37%. But the question remains if Kerry won over people where it counts: the swing states.
Most national polls give President Bush a slim lead. IBD's own polling puts the race at a dead heat: 45%-45%, with Ralph Nader getting 2%.
But that may understate Bush's edge. State-by-state polling shows he's ahead in enough states to win the Electoral College.
"Kerry's in trouble. There is no other way to spin it," said John McIntyre, director of Realclearpolitics.com. "When you look at all the battleground states, he's down."
The latest statewide polls show that Bush leads in 11 swing states: Florida (9%), Ohio (2%), Missouri (6%), Wisconsin (10%), Iowa (3%), Maine (1%), Michigan (2%), Nevada (4%), New Mexico (4%), West Virginia (6%) and Colorado (8%).
Kerry leads in just four: Pennsylvania (1%), Oregon (2%), Washington (7%) and New Jersey (1%).
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