St. Louis Post-Dispatch David Nicklaus column.

Byline: David Nicklaus

Sep. 22--AFTER DECEMBER, THE INTEREST RATE CRYSTAL BALL CLOUDS UP:

While the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates, the bond market is busy marking them down.

On Tuesday, for the third time in three months, the Fed announced a quarter-point increase in the rate for overnight loans between banks. The Fed's stated intention is to return that rate to a neutral level, removing some of the stimulus it's been applying to the economy since 2001.

But exactly what is a neutral interest rate? The answer to that question has been shifting, at least among the folks who buy and sell bonds on Wall Street.

Conventional wisdom holds …