Too Close to Call? Maybe.(United States presidential election poll results)(interview with John Zogby president and CEO of Zogby International)(Interview)(Excerpt)

One of the most divisive elections in U.S. history is entering its home stretch, and the race is tighter than ever. As John Kerry and President George W. Bush wage war in the battleground states--courting swing voters and the all-important undecideds--pollsters such as John Zogby, president and CEO of Zogby International, are trying desperately to track each minute shift in public sentiment. With many key states--Florida, Missouri, Tennessee, Iowa and Arkansas, among others--"too close to call," as Zogby puts it, making a prediction right now is impossible. "My balls are made of steel, not crystal," he says. But the veteran pollster did share some of his insights on the election with NEWSWEEK's Malcolm Beith shortly before the Republican convention in New York. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: The latest polls, including one by the L.A. Times, show Bush ahead for this first time this year.

ZOGBY: According to our last polls, Kerry is still ahead. These polls don't really change the way I see the race. The popular vote is close, with the edge to Kerry. And I think Kerry has the edge in many battleground states. If the election were today, it would be a close popular vote, but a not-so-close electoral vote.

Kerry didn't get much of a bounce from the Democratic convention. Will Bush fare better after the Republican National Convention?

This is not a big-bounce election. You really only have 5 percent hardcore undecideds. We're already in two warring camps. But yes, Bush will do better. I think he will at the very least recapture many disaffected Republicans.

We keep hearing about the importance of swing states and undecideds. How exactly will they determine this election?

Because there are so many of them that are too close to call, you're seeing candidates go to Native American tribes, tripping over each other to visit Arab-American communities. No group is too small this year. In terms of the undecideds, they traditionally break for the challenger. They know the incumbent, they've made up their minds. Now who's the new guy? We are coming out with an extensive poll of undecideds. The bottom line is they don't like the job [Bush] is doing. They're closer to the president, though, in terms of traditional values. They're closer to Kerry on issues. Take the economy for example--Kerry leads by double digits. For those who cite the war as the top issue, Kerry leads by double digits. Education, health care, Kerry by double digits. The issues are clearly with Kerry.