Bangkok Post Travel Column.

Byline: Imtiaz Muqbil

Sep. 3--A major travel forecast report by the giant Japanese tour operator Japan Travel Bureau (JTB) predicts that the country could generate 20 million overseas travellers by 2005 but major shifts taking place in the market demographics need to be closely monitored.

"As long as the economy, exchange rate, and international situation do not change drastically, we expect around 20 million overseas travellers by 2005, and 22 million by 2010 seems attainable," said the JTB Report 2001, distributed globally last month.

Data for January to May 2001 indicates growth of 4.6 percent over 2000 and, if this continues, the number of Japanese travelling overseas in 2001 is expected to reach an all-time high of around 18.4 million, about 3.3 percent over 2000. However, the report referred to the following major shifts taking place in the market structure.

"From the 1980s to the mid-1990s, the number of Japanese overseas travellers increased sharply. During that period, though the percentage of women travellers rose, the market composition percentages by age group for each gender remained basically unchanged.

Thus far, the entire Japanese market has maintained the same composition percentages while it cycled through increases and decreases. With the strong desire for participation in overseas travel, the market has been undergoing a natural expansion brought about by the increasing supply and decreasing prices.

"However, in the late 1990s, some radical shifts took place," says the report. These were: A sudden increase in middle-aged and elderly travellers over 50; an increase in women in their 30s; and a slump in the number of travellers in their 20s, particularly among women.