Bangkok Post Travel Column.

Byline: Imtiaz Muqbil

Oct. 1--Global travel and tourism is confronting a bleak scenario for at least several months to come but all indications are that Thailand is managing to hold its own so far.

While there is general relief that the US has backed off from making a large-scale strike, there is concern about the general economic downturn and uncertainty over currency fluctuations, shifts in investments, rising oil prices, volatile stock markets, and other such factors, the stability of which is critical to the regular flow of travel and tourism.

Add to that the generally depressed mood and the desire of both leisure and business travellers not to be away from home for long periods, and the situation gets even worse.

The recent cancellation of the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting, which would have been a bonanza for host-city Brisbane, is an indication of how big-ticket events are being scaled back for political, economic and security reasons.

How to restore confidence in travel is set to be a major challenge. While corporate leaders and mayors of some cities are taking to the skies themselves to wave the all-clear flag, it is against a background of massive industry job losses and across-the-board cost-cutting.

There is some cheer about the global economic and financial powers trying to get economic growth moving again. One good sign is the decision to go ahead with the World Trade Organisation meeting in Qatar this November. Nevertheless, many in the travel and tourism industry say that the mere fear that the US may still strike is just aggravating the uncertainty.