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Appendix 6: decision trees.(procedure for choosing a decision strategy from a decision tree (backward induction analysis))

Countering Terrorism: Integration of Practice and Theory

| February 28, 2002 | COPYRIGHT 2002 Federal Bureau of Investigation at www.fbi.gov. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

Decision Tree Methodology: Decision trees can be used to help make decisions. The idea is to concretely identify the choice points and map the sequence of decisions from beginning to end. The advantage is that how a decision is made is made explicit, and others can use the decision tree if faced with the same questions.

A decision tree is started with a decision that must be made: whether or not to arrest a suspect. A square (representing this decision) is drawn on the left hand side of the paper. From this box, lines are drawn out towards the right for each possible solution, and the solutions are written along those lines. At the end of each line, the results are considered. If the result is outside the decision-maker's control--that is, if nature makes the next move--then a circle is drawn at the end of the line. If the result is another decision, a square is drawn. If there is a final consequence, a solid dot is drawn.

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The procedure for choosing a decision strategy from a decision tree is called backward induction analysis. This analysis can be summarized as follows: First, each terminal node (marked by the black dot) is assigned a number that represents the worth or utility of the final consequence to the decision maker. For example, at the top of the figure above, the consequence of "describes plot to attack" is given a high value of 10; at the bottom right ...

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Source: HighBeam Research, Appendix 6: decision trees.(procedure for choosing a decision...

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