All Is Not Well For Bush's GOP In Futures Polls.(ISSUES & INSIGHTS)(ON THE RIGHT)

Byline: LAWRENCE KUDLOW

President Bush and Sen. John Kerry are in a virtual dead heat according to the Iowa Electronic Market -- a winner-take-all futures market with a great track record of picking victors (see chart on opposite page). At midweek, Bush was trading at 50.5 cents and Kerry at 49.9 cents.

Kerry had taken a small lead going into the Democratic National Convention, his first lead of the year in the Iowa market. But Bush pulled ahead by the convention's halfway point. Looks like the Boston con game -- "We're not really left liberals who believe in soaking the rich, high taxes, massive government spending and wartime U.N. appeasement" -- is not working all that well.

Between Michael Moore and Teresa Heinz Kerry -- and not to mention the Woody Allen sperm-suit picture of Kerry leaked by NASA -- the Democrats have a bit of a PR problem. Bill Clinton couldn't bail them out. Nor could any of the other big Dem guns, like Jimmy Carter, Al Gore and Howard Dean.

True, it's not what you would call a really deep bench. But you'd think the Democrats would get a noticeable lift out of a week in the limelight.

Bad Omen For Tax Relief

The Iowa futures contracts, however, are not all rosy for the Republicans: The GOP could lose the Senate. At midweek in the market for the Senate, the RSlose contract was trading at 45.5 cents, the RSgain was at 43.1 cents, and the RShold was at 11.4 cents.