World: Stuart Elliott in America.(Forecast of Advertising Expenditures)

Could it be that 2004 is already half over? How appropriate, in that when it comes to the advertising economy, the year seems, so far, like the proverbial glass that the pessimist describes as half empty and the optimist describes as half full.

It's happy days are here again for half of Madison Avenue, the half with accounts in competitive categories such as fast food, autos, packaged goods, prescription drugs and telecommunications.

Those clients have maintained - or, in some instances, even increased - their marketing budgets, for fear of falling behind their rivals if they stop spending.

For the other half of Madison Avenue, another Depression-era song seems more fitting: Brother, Can You Spare a Dime?

Agencies with clients in categories where spending remains stubbornly sluggish, including luxury goods, retailing, travel and lodging, continue to lag behind their counterparts.

There's another sign the recovery isn't quite here yet. When agencies lose accounts, more likely than not they lay off the employees who worked on those assignments. In better times, they try to keep teams intact, to go after other accounts in the same categories.

But there are some signals that better results may lie ahead. Several industry analysts and forecasters are increasing their estimates for growth in ad spending, despite softness in demand for commercial time and ad space in media such as national consumer magazines, local radio and business titles.