Election Year in East Asia.

(From Journal of Japanese Trade & Industry (JJTI))

Byline: Shiraishi Takashi

This year is election year in East Asia. This March presidential elections were held in Taiwan and parliamentary elections took place in Malaysia. In April, national assembly elections were held in Indonesia and South Korea. In May, presidential elections were held in the Philippines. In July, the House of Councilors elections will be held in Japan and the first round of presidential elections will take place in Indonesia, followed by the second round in September. Each of these elections in its own way will be free and fair. The era of developmental authoritarianism is over and the age of democracy has arrived. In the past, under authoritarian governments, "success" in an election was seen as an effective demonstration of the regime's power to control society. Nowadays, however, elections reflect major societal changes in the society and have begun to stimulate changes in administrations.

What are these elections revealing about the changes that are taking place in East Asia? In Taiwan, Chen Shui-bian was re-elected as the president. In South Korea, the Uri Party of President Roh Moo-hyun won a major victory, taking 152 of the 299 assembly seats. In both of these cases, the victories were achieved with support from young people who came of age in the 1980s and 1990s. In contrast to their parents' generation, these people have taken a comparatively affluent lifestyle for granted, receiving higher education and embracing confidence in their own abilities and the future. Together with the advent of such people, there has been a change in the nature of nationalism, and that has brought about a political transformation.

What about Malaysia and Indonesia? In these countries, the change of generations and the transformation of nationalism have not been significant. Of much greater significance has been what might be called the "exorcising of ghosts."

In March, elections for the national and state assemblies were held in Malaysia, and the National Front (Barisan Nasional) headed by Prime Minister Abdullah bin Ahmad Badawi won a major victory. In the national assembly, the National Front took 64% of the votes, obtaining 198 of the 218 seats. In contrast, among the opposition parties, the Islamic Party of Malaysia (Parti Islam se-Malaysia, PAS) took seven seats, the Democratic Action Party (Parti Tindikan Demokratik, DAP) took 12, the National Justice Party (Parti Keadilan Nasional) took one and the unaffiliated took one seat. (In the 1999 election, among 193 seats, the National Front took 148, while PAS took 27, DAP took 10 and Keadilan took five.) Why was the National Front so successful in this recent election? One reason, naturally, is that the Malaysian economy is doing well. A second is that in October of last year, Badawi, who succeeded Mahathir bin Mohamad as Prime Minister, re-examined the large-scale public works projects approved in the last period of the Mahathir administration. By modifying the system of government procurements, and thereby distancing himself from Mahathir, Badawi was able to recover the support of the middle class, especially the Malay middle class, which was calling for clean government.

This does not mean, however, that Badawi will implement major reforms. On the basis of this major election victory, Badawi will gain even greater control of the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) leadership in June. The issue is what will follow.