Ready for Europe, or No? Turkish membership would change the EU 'Christian club' forever. The dirty secret: that's why it may well not happen.(Cover Story)

Byline: Owen Matthews

If the current crop of new members is causing an identity crisis for old Europe, consider this. If Turkey joins the EU, there will be more mosque-going Muslims in Europe than church-attending Protestants. In a decade's time, Turkey's population will have outstripped Germany's. And under a new population-based voting system, Turkey would have as many votes as Europe's smallest 18 countries combined in the Council of Ministers, the EU's most powerful institution.

No wonder, then, that increasing numbers of Europeans are uneasy about Turkey's accession--and about the redefining of Europe's cultural and political self-image that it will bring. In early April French President Jacques Chirac's party came out against Turkish membership on the ground that it would "dilute" Europe. And Germany's opposition Christian Democrats propose a "third way" for Turkey in the form of a "special relationship," short of full membership. Meanwhile, the Turks are counting on the EU to give them a start date for negotiations at the Union's annual summit this December. From Ankara's point of view, once talks have started, it's only a matter of time before Turkey fulfills Brussels's economic and political criteria and becomes a full-fledged member of the club.

The reality may not be that straightforward. Religion, for one, could prove a deal breaker. According to Huseyin Bagci of Ankara's Middle East Technical University, the real debate "in the guts of those making the decision is about culture and religion," not about the public issues of economics and civil liberties. Turkish membership will change forever the idea of ...