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Re-election doubts cast a shadow over ties with Beijing.

Asia Africa Intelligence Wire

| March 23, 2004 | COPYRIGHT 2004 Financial Times Ltd. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

(From South China Morning Post)

Byline: ANALYSIS Nailene Chou Wiest in Taipei

Although Beijing has yet to react to Chen Shui-bian's re-election, analysts believe a new storm is brewing in cross-strait relations.

The legitimacy of his second term will be determined by an investigation into last Friday's assassination attempt, as it will put the island's judicial system to the test. Unless the Chen government handles the crisis in a fair and open manner, Taiwan's image as a fledgling democracy could be damaged.

The US and Japan's caution in their remarks about Mr Chen's re-election indicates international sentiment is still uncertain, and any serious attempt to ease tensions across the Taiwan Strait is far away.

But when he is sworn in for his second term on May 20, Mr Chen may offer new proposals to improve ties and position himself as a pragmatic leader, said Chang Wu-yueh, director of the Graduate School of China Studies at Tamkang University in Taipei.

Mr Chen could seize the opportunity to show that his recent calls for Taiwanese independence were election rhetoric and that he was ready to moderate his stance now that voting was over, he said.

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