'Potential for war' if Chen's term confirmed Beijing would have no choice if independence were declared, say US analysts.

(From South China Morning Post)

Byline: Ray Cheung in Taipei

The potential for military conflict in the Taiwan Strait will be high if Chen Shui-bian's second term as president is confirmed, US military analysts warn.

They expect the PLA to launch a massive military exercise next year to demonstrate its intent and capability to invade Taiwan if Mr Chen officially declares independence.

Chas Freeman, a former US assistant secretary of defence, said a war could not be ruled out within the next four years because of Mr Chen's past declarations that Taiwan would "go its own way".

Mr Chen had made it clear that he would not accept Beijing's "one China" principle, said Mr Freeman, who was also translator for then US president Richard Nixon's meeting with Mao Zedong in 1972.

He said Beijing's previous threats to attack Taiwan were credible, pointing to the massive buildup on the mainland coast facing the island despite the central government's low-key attitude in the months leading to Saturday's presidential election.