Interview: Beware the Consensus; A certified optimist says stampeding small investors may produce a new 'top,' as in 2000.(securities analyst Byron Wien)(Interview)(Cover Story)

Byline: Tony Emerson

Wall Street contrarian Byron Wien is enjoying a bull run. His annual list of 10 surprises for the coming year accurately foretold a big 2003 for the U.S. market and economy. This year he put out a parallel list of bearish predictions--just to tweak what he calls a too-narrow consensus. Wien, a top Morgan Stanley strategist, spoke with NEWSWEEK's Tony Emerson about what investors should (and should not) be worrying about. Excerpts:

What's the market mood?

Complacency. Maybe apprehensive optimism, guarded optimism.

And the big global risk?

During the '90s a cult of equities developed that investors had never seen before. A broad segment of the world population began to think that equities were the asset of choice. Most people thought that in the United States' decline from 2000 to 2002, investors were chastened. But when the market started to do well again, individuals came flocking back, much more quickly than anybody thought.

Too fast?