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Byline: BRUCE BARTLETT
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has just issued a new report on employment growth over the next decade.
Prepared by the agency's career staff, it has an excellent record of forecasting industry and occupational trends. It contains good news for those seeking jobs -- if they have the right skills.
To calculate job growth, the BLS first does a long-term economic forecast using the respected computer model of Macroeconomic Advisers. Its prediction is that real gross domestic product will rise at an average annual rate of 3% between 2002 and 2012. This is slightly less than the 3.4% annual rate in the 1980s and 3.2% in the 1990s. By 2012, the economy will have grown to $12.6 trillion (in 1996 dollars), up from $9.4 trillion in 2002.
The BLS sees investment spending by businesses as the driving force for growth. It is expected to rise at a 5.5% annual rate over the next decade.
Gray Areas
Increased spending on computers and software are a major reason for the higher investment. By 2012, businesses are expected to spend $1.6 trillion in this area, up from $420 billion in 2002, $75 billion in 1992 and just $11 billion in 1982 (all in 1996 dollars).