Shiite Rising; The defeat of Saddam has unleashed a new religious and political force, which could become a moderate ally of the United States in Iraq--and perhaps spur reform in the larger Middle East.(Brief Article)(Cover Story)

Byline: Christopher Dickey and Rod Nordland, With Tamara Lipper in Washington and Babak Dehghanpisheh in Tehran

Saddam Hussein had something against bananas, and taxed them heavily. You rarely ever saw them for sale when he was in power. Now they're in every outdoor market, even in front of the gold-domed mosque at Khadimiyah, one of the most sacred shrines for Shiite Muslims. Mohamed Abu Zayedine, 38, does a brisk business peddling the fruit to pilgrims. ("They're the taste of freedom," jokes one customer.) Unlike in Saddam's day, Shiite visitors are now allowed to come to Iraq's holy places by the tens of thousands from Iran, Afghanistan and Lebanon, from Bahrain and Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. So Abu Zayedine is optimistic for himself and his six kids, and grateful to the Americans who've changed his world. "I have no house, but in two years I do hope to own one," he says. "In the past we had no hope."

But the fruit seller is also a realist. "We have more freedom," he said one recent afternoon, "but at any moment you can expect an explosion." He meant that literally: the great Shiite shrine is an obvious target for someone trying to start a sectarian war, and throughout Iraq--throughout the region--fears of just such a confrontation are growing. Sunni Muslim terrorists, who despise the Shiites as apostates, have openly called for their destruction. One of Osama bin Laden's spokesmen urged Iraqis last October to "kill all satanic ayatollahs among the Shiites." As it is, violence is so commonplace in Baghdad these days that it's talked about like the weather. "Terrorist bombs and traffic jams affect my work," said Abu Zayedine.

That mix of fatalism and resolve is typical of Iraqi Shiites, who never deserved the fanatical label imposed on them by Saddam. But collectively, this underclass unleashed and empowered by the U.S. occupation is also the single most revolutionary new force in the region. Guided by their ayatollahs, they can show enormous discipline, whether marching in protest, fighting in the streets--or voting. If they remain grateful to the United States and friendly to its interests, they will be potent allies. If not, the whole adventure in Iraq could come to a disastrous end.

All the countries in the region with large Shiite populations--all those that are sending pilgrims to Iraq's ancient shrines--are watching these developments with rapt attention. Already you're beginning to hear rhetoric that hasn't been bruited since the height of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's power in Iran. Ali Al-Ahmed of the dissident Saudi Institute in Washington, for instance, says the world should stop talking about the Persian Gulf or, as the Arabs call it, the Arab Gulf. "It's the Shia Gulf," he says. "Look at the people who live around it, at least 90 percent of them are Shiites. The U.S. must take that into account. The Shiites are sitting on all that oil."

Iran and Saudi Arabia, especially, have enormous stakes in the shape of things to come, and they're not just watching passively as events unfold. "If democracy is a success in Iraq, this will have a huge effect in the region," says Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former deputy Interior minister in Tehran and a close friend of President Mohammed Khatami. Another leading Iranian reformist, Mohammed Ali Abtahi, hopes the Iraqi Shiite ...