The End of Jihad; Ahead of talks with India, Pakistan seems to have cut off support for Kashmiri militants. Is the war over?

Byline: Zahid Hussain and Ron Moreau, With Sudip Mazumdar in New Delhi

The bitterness was palpable among the more than one dozen hardened jihadi fighters. Veterans of the 14-year guerrilla struggle against Indian control of Kashmir, they had gathered in a cold, dingy room in the Pakistani-administered zone to discuss their narrowing options. Last month's historic agreement struck between Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee posed a near-knockout blow to the militants' hopes of ending India's occupation of the disputed Himalayan territory. In the deal, Musharraf promised to crack down on the militants, ending their cross-border attacks on Indian forces. In turn, Vajpayee agreed to begin unconditional negotiations with Pakistan on the status of Kashmir--a source of tension that has twice led these nuclear-armed rivals to war.

Not all of the guerrillas are ready to lay down their arms. "We will not allow Musharraf to sell out the blood of our martyrs," says Saifullah, a bearded fighter in his early 20s. "We will continue the jihad no matter what." But others seemed resigned to the fact that the fighting may be coming to an end. "We have been betrayed," laments Mohammad Ashfaq, a native of the Kashmiri capital of Srinagar. "We have no choice now but to return to our homes." Ashraq is probably right, given the larger forces pushing the leaders of India and Pakistan toward peace. "It's the beginning of the end of the Kashmir jihad," says Rifaat Hussain, a defense analyst at Islamabad's Quaid-i-Azam University.

Musharraf has promised to curb the jihadis before. But in the past he hedged his bets, ordering only a temporary halt to attacks in the hope that India would reciprocate by sitting down for talks. This time, following two serious assassination attempts last December, one led by a suicide bomber belonging to the outlawed jihadi group Jaish-e-Mohammed, he has more reason than ever to clamp down on his homegrown militants. His tone has become increasingly conciliatory of late. In an interview with NEWSWEEK, he hinted that he was willing to drop Pakistan's longtime demand that a plebiscite be held in Kashmir to determine its status, as long as India was equally forthcoming: "I have been saying we must go beyond stated positions and show flexibility," he said. "But it can't be done unilaterally by Pakistan."

Facing down the jihadis will be no small task: since an indigenous insurrection against Indian rule broke out in Kashmir in 1989, some 10,000 fighters belonging to at least six Pakistan-based guerrilla groups have crossed the border to aid their Kashmiri brothers-in-arms. But already Islamabad has transformed the battleground. The constant Pakistani artillery barrages that once provided cover for the guerrillas' infiltration have ended. The ceasefire along the Line of Control dividing Kashmir has held since December. Pakistani Army units have ...