Mind-Set Is Middle Of The Road In Third Of States Up For Grabs; Slight Tilt Right, If Any; Among the swing voters most moderate message may be most persuasive.(A)(IBD/TIPP POLL)

Byline: IBD STAFF

It may not seem fair, but some voters have more clout than others when it comes to electing a president. And this year will be no different, according to the latest IBD/TIPP analysis.

These influential voters are those who live in so-called battleground states that don't identify with either of the two major parties.

The swing states represent 32% of the U.S. population and 175 electoral votes. By comparison, states loyal to Republicans -- based on the last two presidential contests -- represent 32% of the population and 180 electoral votes, and those loyal to Democrats have 35% of the population and 183 electoral votes.

According to the Jan. 5-9 IBD/TIPP Poll, voters in the battleground states lean toward the incumbent -- at least for now. Pitting George W. Bush against an unnamed Democratic challenger, they split 44% to 32% in Bush's favor.

Among voters in states that have been loyal to Democrats, Bush edged the Democrat by three points (42% to 39%). In Republican states, the president enjoys a wide 28-point margin (53% to 25%).

But it's much too early to make predictions, said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD's polling partner. "The closer we get to November, the tighter the race will get."