Iowa Caucus Winner Often Fails To Get Party's Nomination; Carter's '76 Win Legendary; Muskie, Gephardt, Dole faltered after first victory; 2nd place can be better.(A)

Byline: BRIAN MITCHELL

In the final days, the Iowa caucuses were looking more and more like a horse race. The odds were even on the four strongest ponies.

But let the bettor beware: Monday's caucuses are just the starting gate, and anything can happen down the track -- no matter who takes the lead out of Iowa.

"It's going to be fun," said Larry Sabato, professor of politics at the University of Virginia. "As usual, the caucuses are tightening up as the day approaches. That's the norm in a multicandidate strong field, which is what we have."

Zogby International's Jan. 13-15 poll of Iowa Democrats had Sen. John Kerry favored with 24%. Gov. Howard Dean and Rep. Dick Gephardt were tied at 19%. Sen. John Edwards was …