MEDIA FORUM: What are the omens for media in 2004?

Is it the end of the downturn, or are the industry's runes readers just making it all up? Alasdair Reid investigates.

What's in store for 2004? Surely the very least we can expect is an end to all the gloom and doom that's been dogging the industry for the past couple of years?

If only everything in life was as reliable as that old theory about Olympic years being bumper years. In the US especially, the Olympic Games are usually seen as an excuse to add a zero (well, almost) to marketing budgets and any upturn in activity is usually given added momentum by the US Presidential election, which stokes up even more demand for television airtime. When the US market is buoyant, markets in Europe and Asia usually kick on too - and from a purely Euro-centric view, it also helps not just that the Olympics are being held in Athens but also that there's a major football tournament in Portugal beginning in June.

So, is it farewell to that old bathtub of a downturn we've been wallowing in of late? There are certainly pockets of undiluted optimism around but on the other hand it's not hard to find curmudgeons predicting nothing but continued gloom as well. Who's right?

Jerry Hill, Initiative's group chief executive, UK & Ireland, would certainly advise caution. He's not exactly pessimistic about the prospects for 2004, but he's not expecting a wave of euphoria either 'We're still seeing negative signs from the US economy and these days companies are adept at moving investment into areas where they will get higher rates of return.

Europe is a mature business area so in general you can't expect to see huge leaps of growth there. So, while I think stability is there I don't think we'll see the sort of bounce-back we might have seen at the end of previous downturns,' he says.

But what about the broader challenges facing media agencies? Will we see continuing consolidation and restructuring?