Master of Disaster.(French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin seen as indecisive, drops in popularity)

It seemed that French Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin had finally found an issue he couldn't fumble. Public health versus Big Tobacco? A no-brainer. The government last month put through large tax increases on cigarettes, set fines for selling tobacco to kids and introduced bigger, bolder health warnings. The 55-year-old conservative hoped the move would yield a big political boost and push headlines off the failures of his government--dilatory reform efforts, high unemployment and a poor response to last summer's deadly heat wave. He would, at long last, be hailed as a Man of Action.

Then came a smidgen of political pressure from an obscure lobby organization representing France's 34,000 tobacco vendors, lamenting the threat to their "livelihood." Raffarin waffled. The vendors have been promised a bigger cut of cigarette sales, plus 150 million euro in compensation for potential losses. As if that weren't enough, they are being guaranteed a four-year moratorium from further cigarette-tax increases--the very thing that supposedly discourages smoking. A year and a half into Raffarin's term, French voters have reached a sorry conclusion: their man simply isn't a finisher. "Most people think that he can't cope with events," says Jean-Marc Le Lech, head of the influential Ipsos polling firm in Paris, summing up the rap on Raffarin. "They don't believe that he is competent."

What a change from a year ago. Then, his approval ratings stood at 63 percent. Today the figure is 33 percent. Raffarin now ranks as France's second most unpopular politician, just a notch above the reviled right- wing extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen. His declining popularity and the anti-tobacco campaign spurred the satirical newspaper Le Canard Enchaine to run a large cigarette warning label on its cover last week saying: "Jean-Pierre Raffarin is a serious danger to your health and to that of those around you."

When Raffarin became prime minister in June 2002, he was initially admired for his accessibility in a country where powerful officials often remain aloof. He had political advantages, as well. For the first time in five years, a single political force--his conservative Liberal Democracy Party, allied with President Jacques Chirac--controlled both the Elysee Palace, the prime minister's office and Parliament. At last, it was imagined, the tough work of economic and social reform--widely agreed upon as needed--could begin.

But no. This May, Raffarin's high-profile effort to raise the retirement age and reduce unemployment benefits brought hundreds of thousands of impassioned protesters into the streets. Initially the prime minister refused all dialogue. Indeed, he practically egged on the demonstrators, declaring that neither unionists nor the demonstrators could stop him. The tough talk didn't stick, says Brice Teinturier, director of political studies for another French polling company, Sofres. When the protests dragged on through the summer, Raffarin backed off and watered down his proposed changes.

Then came the infamous August heat wave, with nearly 15,000 dead. Raffarin was quite literally nowhere to be seen as emergency rooms overflowed and the elderly were dying of dehydration in their homes. When he finally surfaced, late in the crisis after cutting short his vacation, it was to focus on the national lifestyle changes that had pushed old folks into hospitals and nursing homes (while their children go on holiday). He proposed that the French work an extra day each year by way of recompense. The extra earnings would go toward improving life for the elderly.

It was a ...