Descent Into Chaos.(Georgians demand removal of President Edouard Shevardnadze)

For Georgians who remember the chaotic birth of their nation from the ruins of the Soviet Empire, recent events are painfully familiar. Allegations of rigged elections earlier this month have brought as many as 40,000 angry, impoverished citizens into the streets; they are demanding the removal of veteran President Edouard Shevardnadze and complaining of endemic corruption, unpaid wages and lack of basic utilities. Increasing numbers of nervous, armed police have been rushed into Tbilisi, Georgia's capital. And just like the last spate of unrest, in 1993, the teetering government seems to be considering turning to military factions for support, and even to former colonial power Russia. "Ten years on, the world has changed so much and Georgia has changed so little," laments Zurab Paliashvili, a former parliamentarian. "Same problems, only worse."

That's an exaggeration. So far, there's been no bloodshed. But Shevardnadze warned last week that the protests had brought Georgia "to the brink of civil war." Opposition leader Mikhail Saakashvili called on all Georgians to "declare civil disobedience to the Shevardnadze regime." The prospect of instability has rung alarm bells in the United States, which has made a major diplomatic investment in an oil pipeline from the Caspian port of Baku to the Mediterranean, running through Georgian territory. The pipeline, to be completed next year, will open a major source of strategically important non-Middle Eastern oil from the Caspian Sea for Western markets--unless political unrest delays its completion.

Unfortunately, there's no quick fix. A decade of crony capitalism has left the country an economic basket case; two of Georgia's richest regions have split away from Tbilisi's authority, and Shevardnadze himself has survived three assassination attempts. The trigger for the latest protests was this month's election victory for Shevardnadze's party in a vote that international observers described as "deeply flawed." Levan Ramishvili, director of Tbilisi's Liberty Institute, a human-rights NGO, cites cases of election observers being beaten by police, the burning of an opposition party's offices and ballot stuffing in the southern city of Batumi. David Berdzenishvili, chairman of the Republican Party of Georgia, says that his car was stopped as he returned from a disrupted election rally ...