Chinese Lessons.(political and economic reform in China)(Column)

Earlier this month, President George W. Bush proclaimed America's intent to ignite a democratic revolution in Arab countries, using Iraq as the springboard. By last week it was increasingly apparent that Bush means to push ahead with democratic elections Iraq as the means to deliver on this call for "the advance of freedom." Alas, elections are not enough. Just look at Russia, where after a decade of electoral democracy, recent events demonstrate that strong men--not laws--still rule, and prosperity still rests on one fickle resource: oil.

Then there is China, which no one mentions as a model for the Middle East, precisely because it has never held national elections. Admittedly, you have to swallow hard to say that China, with its reprehensible record on human rights, is a model for anyone. But China's record is no worse than the sham democracies of Central Asia and Africa, where elections have done nothing to safeguard individual liberties. Those basket-case states point to the likely future of Iraq, too, if elections are pushed with too much haste. For if that happens, Iraq is far less likely to emerge looking like Hungary, a prospering liberal democracy, than like Azerbaijan, an electoral dictatorship with a corrupt petrodollar economy.

The China model offers the best way out of the premature-election trap, which is to start with economic reform. Over the past two decades Beijing has become one of the world's fastest-growing economies, one of its major trading nations. It is improving its education and health- care services, and making rapid progress in science and technology. In recent years it has begun shifting from economic to political reform: establishing modern laws and institutions, and holding local elections. Though the government tries to control the media, some 70 million people have access to the Internet. Some subjects remain taboo, but there's real policy debate in the press, on TV talk shows and in universities. Top government officials are listening. To cite one example: when critics accused Beijing of covering up the SARS epidemic, they quickly acknowledged the scope of the problem.

Arab societies ought to at least consider at the China model. Or they could look at South Korea, Taiwan or Singapore, all of which were as dirt-poor as China when they, too, began reform with economic liberalization. These countries are far more relevant to the Arab experience than postwar Germany and Japan--which are often cited by the Bush administration, but were rich, industrialized and war torn, not backward and war torn. Even in postwar Germany, national elections didn't take place for more than four years.

Of course, there are big differences between Arab nations and China, but they also have some interesting things in common. Centuries ago they were among the world's most prosperous and cosmopolitan societies, spearheading advances in science, commerce and the arts. In the 20th century they lost their way under despotic, insular rulers, and fell behind the West. Now, the Arab world needs to follow China's gigantic leap into the modern world.

Consider the sad facts, gleaned from recent U.N. and World Bank studies. Over the past 20 years, the average per capita growth rate in the Arab world has been less than 1 percent, lower than that of sub- Saharan Africa. Official ...