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Poll Surprise: Q4 PC Sales May Be Weak; After Third Quarter Soared; Survey of buying intent falls to its lowest levels since before war in Iraq.(A)(IBD/TIPP POLL)
Byline: PATRICK SEITZ
Consumer intent to buy new personal computers has fallen to its lowest point since March, when purchase plans plummeted on the eve of the U.S.-led war in Iraq.
The IBD TIPP Home Computer Purchase Outlook index hit 17.5 in October, just above its all-time low of 17.3 in March. The October number was the second lowest since IBD's polling partner, TIPP, began collecting data in April 2002.
The steep drop in demand is surprising because the industry reported strong third-quarter sales to consumers, and none of the big PC makers are projecting a falloff in demand.
Only 19.7% of respondents said that they were very likely or somewhat likely to buy a new PC within the next six months. That compares with 22% in September, 21% in August and 26.1% in July.
The latest poll numbers could translate to lukewarm PC sales this Christmas season, says Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence.
"For now, it looks like a considerable slowdown" in PC sales is ahead, Mayur said. "Q4 is going to be kind of tepid because you're coming off a very strong demand period."
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