'The Threat is Real'.(Malaysia)

On paper, Abdullah Badawi has a dream job. Malaysia's next prime minister will inherit a prosperous, moderate Muslim country with a vibrant multiracial, multireligious society. But his predecessor has also left to Abdullah the problem of a growing fundamentalist movement that threatens to alter Malaysia's political balance. "It's the core political issue," says one senior Western diplomat. "The threat is real."

The prospect of the country's leading opposition party, Parti Islam se- Malaysia (PAS), ever seizing national power seems remote. The ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, led by Abdullah's United Malays National Organization (UMNO), has run the country since independence in 1957-- and, with the support of minority Indian and Chinese parties, controls a two-thirds majority of Parliament. But in 1999, during the last national elections, PAS took control of a second state assembly, and anecdotal evidence suggests that support for PAS has grown in the Malay heartland in the north of the country. "Abdullah will have to check the influence of PAS because he will be affected politically if they make gains," says Syed Hussein Alatas, an expert on Malaysian Islam.

Ruling-party politicians are privately terrified that PAS could make further gains in both parliamentary and state elections expected early next year. Indeed, one of outgoing Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad's chief tasks after retirement will be to campaign up north, especially in the swing state of Kedah, where he was born. PAS cannot win an outright majority in the next national parliamentary election, but if the Islamists win enough seats to break the ruling coalition's two- thirds majority, Abdullah could face a leadership challenge as early as next June's UMNO conference. "The results will determine if Abdullah can consolidate his power after seven months in office, or is a weak, temporary leader," says another senior Kuala Lumpur-based diplomat. "It's more an election for UMNO to lose rather than PAS to win."

Abdullah supporters profess not to be worried, insisting that the opposition rhetoric only drives more Malaysians into their camp. "How can you accept a party that says women cannot sing in public?" says Tourism and Culture Minister Abdul Kadir. Although PAS supports economic modernization, it's taken ...