Like Father, Like Son?(Ilham Aliyev)

From a western great gamer's point of view, this week's presidential election in Azerbaijan looks set to yield a happy result. The leading candidate is pro-American, a former boss of Azerbaijan's national oil company, and a friend to oil majors such as BP-Amoco and Exxon, which have invested billions to develop his country's huge reserves. Best of all, in a part of the world where stability is a commodity rarer and more precious than oil, he's the son of the man who's run Azerbaijan for 30 years, Heidar Aliyev, now critically ill in a U.S. hospital. News that Heidar won't be coming home for the election, as the government promised routinely for the past five months, marks a new era. Says a veteran U.S. diplomat in the region--"electing Ilham is the next best thing to keeping his father alive."

Not everyone sees it quite that way, of course. Isa Gambar, head of the Equality Party and Aliyev Junior's main rival, complains that Azerbaijan is heading for a "monarchical system," with power passing from generation to generation within a self-appointed quasi-royal family. But that's the kind of stability outsiders like oil companies, U.S. diplomats and even neighboring Russia seem to prefer. According to one school of thought, it's better to deal with a known quantity than an unpredictable new government drawn from the opposition. "Any business in any country looks for stability," says Roger Nunn of BP- Amoco in Baku.

More surprising, roughly 60 percent of Azeris seem to agree and are ready to vote for 42-year-old Ilham. He may lack his father's charm, has a reputation as a playboy and gambler and was appointed prime minister just two months ago. But why should that disqualify a head of state in a part of the world long known for cronyism and outright banditry? "We know they're corrupt," says Elvira Turanova, 34, a publisher from Baku, who nevertheless plans to vote for Ilham. "The Aliyevs and their cronies have stolen all they need. If the opposition comes to power they will bring more hungry snouts to the trough." Ilham Aliyev, for his part, insists that it's his oppponents, not him, who are corrupt.

That's hardly a ringing endorsement of Azeri democracy, but so be it. A similar sense of ...