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THE ECONOMY.(A)

Investor's Business Daily

| September 02, 2003 | COPYRIGHT 2003 Investor's Business Daily, Inc. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

Fed not reason for smooth cycles

That's according to a National Bureau of Economic Research paper presented at the annual Jackson Hole, Wyo., Fed conference. The paper said the drop in economic volatility of the past two decades has more to due with the absence of major blows like the oil shocks of the 1970s. Improved monetary policy can "take credit for only a small fraction" of the milder boom and busts, the study said.

** Central banks should tackle emerging asset bubbles head-on rather than wait till they burst, economists at the Bank for International Settlements said at the Fed conference.

ECRI leading index rose last week

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's leading U.S. index ticked up to 127.8 in the week ended Aug. 22 from 127.6 in the prior week. Falling mortgage applications due to rising interest rates offset bullish stock gains and higher oil prices. The index's four-week annualized growth rate slid for a third straight week to 12.4%, but remains near a 20-year high. "This recovery is not very vulnerable," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman ...

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