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The likelihood that the U.S. is in a recession has risen, but the nation may very well steer clear of a serious economic downturn,the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago said on Tuesday.
The Chicago Fed said its National Activity Index was -0.89 in February, a slight decline from a revised -0.87 reading in January. The three-month moving average, which smooths out month-to-month swings, was -0.81 in February, down from January's -0.78.
Economists at the Chicago Fed said that while the decline in the index suggests an increased probability that the ...