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Earnings Don't Add Up As Market Indicator.(A)
By David Saito-Chung
Investor's Business Daily
The future of a stock weighs a lot on its earnings. Companies that grow their bottom line year after year reap rewards in the market.
Yet when it comes to how the market will do, earnings mean almost nothing.
The recent past is already priced into the market. It tells how firms will fare six to 12 months or so in the future. Take the S&P 500. From 1972 to 2000,the key large-cap benchmark had seven down years. In six of those years, earnings of S&P firms rose from a year earlier.
The S&P index logged annual gains in 22 of the last 29 years. In eight of those years, S&P 500 firms as a whole saw earnings fall.
The market's irony makes for great theater. Last year, blue chips' profits soared, but their stocks tanked. This year, profits may deflate. But will stocks end in glory?
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