His Moment of Truth.(Hugo Chavez of Venezuela fights opponents who want recall vote)(Column)

Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's controversial president, spent all of 2002 fending off attempts to oust him from power. Massive street protests, organized by political opponents, roiled Caracas. A two-month-long general strike paralyzed the country's vital oil industry. There was a near-coup by dissident military officers. All failed to halt what Chavez calls his "revolution."

Now the opposition, which views the Chavez government as both incompetent and authoritarian, is pursuing another strategy. According to a provision in the Constitution, which Chavez and his supporters rewrote in 1999, he must submit to a recall referendum after the halfway point in his term if 20 percent of the electorate requests such a vote. Both those conditions may soon be met: The president's opponents have gathered the signatures of 2.7 million people who want a recall vote, and after Aug. 19 the Constitution permits such a referendum to be held. So Chavez's moment of truth may be at hand. Chavez has boasted that Venezuela's new Constitution is the "best in the world." Now, as Teodoro Petkoff, editor of the newspaper TalCual, wrote in a recent editorial, "it has him by the throat."

Maybe. Polls show that Chavez's popularity has sunk to its lowest point--only 30 percent of Venezuelan voters say they support him. But the president is a master political operator, and he's maneuvering with some success to delay or permanently sidetrack the recall referendum. Critics charge that he's trying to ditch democracy and cling to power. Others say he's merely acting like any desperate politician, even though the government and the opposition signed a pact in May, brokered by the Organization of American States, that declared their willingness to abide by the Constitution in the power struggle. "I don't think it's in any politician's interest to have an election that's just 'me, against me', " says a Western diplomat in Caracas. A majority of Venezuelans favor the idea of a recall vote, including some Chavez supporters, but many people doubt that one will take place soon.

Chavez's ruling coalition is trying to use its thin parliamentary majority to thwart the challenge. Before the referendum can be held, the legislature must appoint a new electoral authority, the CNE, which will be charged with supervising the vote. Legislators have been deadlocked for months on who should be appointed to the five-member CNE. The Venezuelan ...