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Thank heaven for small favors. The tax bill has passed, it's signed and somerelief will be getting to taxpayers as early as this year. Bravo. But sometimes, in the compromised sausage factory that is Washington, everything doesn't get done right.
Much was made of the size of the Bush tax cut: $1.35 trillion over 11 years.A recent study by Instinet Research showed the economy's likely to get a good bounce from the tax cut -- especially if the Fed keeps an easy monetary stance (see chart).
But long term, what will the tax cut do? Well, Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill says it will boost GDP by about 0.5%, or around $50 billion a year. That's not huge, but it ain't bad, either.
Still, we have some concerns. Call us perfectionists, but we think the tax cut could have been better. Much better.
To begin with, it's not big enough. We know, you've heard over and over about the "massive" Bush tax cut. But $1.35 trillion over 11 years isn't reallythat much, about $122 billion a year.
Put it in perspective. The government expects GDP of about $133 trillion over that time. Government's take will total about $27.9 trillion, and the total surplus will be about $5.6 trillion. So $1.35 trillion is a drop in the bucket, about 1% of GDP, 5% of expected taxes and 24% of the surplus.
Right now, the federal government takes 20.5% of the entire economy. That's about $16,500 from each working American every year. How big does this year's planned $300 tax rebate sound now?