THE ECONOMY.(TO THE POINT)

Chance of recession is retreating,

Chicago Fed index rise suggests

The Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index rose to -0.50 in July from a revised -1.10 in June. Its three-month moving average rose to -0.82 in July from June's -1.02. That was the 13th straight reading below zero, a sign of contraction. Economists note that in each of the five recessions since 1967, the three-month average fell below -1. So the rise may be a sign the economy has bottomed. Of the 85 economic indicators used to churn the index, 60 show below-average growth. But 56 improved.

Fed members hint at more cuts

amid shaky outlook on economy

So say reports from the Kansas City Fed's annual conference last week in Jackson Hole, Wyo. In comments during breaks, over meals and on walks, Fed officials showed a willingness to cut rates again in hopes of sparking an economic recovery.

Low- and moderate-income couples with 401(k) plans might pay more tax over their lifetimes than if they put their money elsewhere, the Cleveland Fed says. But higher-income earners get a break.