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TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH FIRMS Researchers Scale Back Targets In face of criticism and a slumping economy, analysts lower revenue forecasts.(INTERNET & TECHNOLOGY)
Byline: Doug Tsuruoka
Edgy about their credibility after the dot-com meltdown, researchers are changing the way they measure the Internet's growth.
The move comes in the face of growing criticism. Like financial analysts, technology research firms are under fire for their bullish predictions about Net-driven industries.
Many of their forecasts failed to materialize.
"Everyone bought into these enormous growth curves," said Ranjay Gulati, a professor at Northwestern University's Kellogg School of Management. "But there was no transparency. It was unclear where researchers got their numbers. You need relevance, but you also need rigor."
Big researchers like Forrester Research Inc. are erring on the side of caution these days. That means scaling back revenue targets for online retail, business e-commerce and online advertising.
They're updating their work with fresh data from the slowing economy. New low-ball numbers may have a better chance of predicting the future.
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