Louis Rukeyser Shelves Elves Missed Market Trends Tinkering didn't improve index's track record for calling market's direction.(MUTUAL FUNDS)

Byline: KEN HOOVER

Louis Rukeyser, host of the popular "Wall Street Week" TV show, has quietly shelved his Elves Index, which was made up of his panel of experts' stock market forecasts.

On Sept. 14, in the aftermath of the World Trade Center attack, he told his audience he was going to "give our elves a rest for a while." He hasn't mentioned them in weeks. And he declined to be interviewed on the subject.

He's doing viewers a big favor. The index had a terrible track record. The elves said buy when they should have said sell, and vice versa.

They were giddy with optimism as stocks crumbled the past two years. Maybe their darkest hour came in 1999 when an elf was indicted by a federal grand jury.

There's a lesson here for investors. Pay no attention to experts, even if they are handpicked by the venerated Rukeyser. Sure, his show has helped PBS viewers gain an understanding of the arcane world of the stock market for three decades. But all investors need to learn to separate fact from opinion. And be especially leery if there's a consensus about the market's direction from Wall Street's best minds. Chances are the market will go in the opposite direction.

"As far as I'm concerned, the experts are nothing more than the herd," said Don Hayes, a money manager who closely follows market psychology. "Most people get their current market opinion from current market news. And news looks backward. The market is always looking forward six to 12 months."