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Economy's Streak Ends -- GDP Declined 0.4% During Third Quarter Drop Was Worst Since 1991 Recession seems certain, since Sept. 11's impact on economy still pending.(A)

Investor's Business Daily

| November 01, 2001 | COPYRIGHT 2001 Investor's Business Daily, Inc. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

Byline: CLAIRE MENCKE

Moving a step closer to recession, the economy shrank 0.4% in the third quarter, according to the Commerce Department's first estimate Wednesday.

It was the biggest drop in a decade, as the Sept. 11 attack ended hopes the already-slumping economy would continue to grow.

At first glance, the 0.4% fall was better than Wall Street's forecasts for a 1% decline in gross domestic product, the most widely used yardstick of the nation's growth.

But, strangely, GDP was inflated by a one-time event related to the Sept. 11 massacre.

"The calculation of imported insurance costs in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks had the paradoxical impact of boosting real GDP by 0.6%," said David Orr, chief economist of Wachovia Securities.

The government treats insurance claims as received in the period the loss occurs. Much of this was from foreign insurance firms.

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