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THE ECONOMY.(TO THE POINT)

Investor's Business Daily

| August 05, 2002 | COPYRIGHT 2002 Investor's Business Daily, Inc. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

Parry says Fed ready, if needed

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Robert Parry said the Fed would act decisively if the economy should stall, but he doesn't see a double-dip recession as likely. Even with the fed funds rate at a low 1.75%, he says the Fed has the capability to minimize the consequences of another downturn.

The Fed's Parry said he's concerned about the sharp increase in the federal budget deficit. While deficits are expected in recessionary times, he's worried about a lack of fiscal discipline in Congress.

No Fed action is seen this year by a majority of Wall Street firms polled by Reuters Friday. They see a 36% chance of a Fed cut in '02 and 20% chance of a double-dip recession, up from 13% July 16.

ECRI's U.S. weekly index slips

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's gauge of U.S. economic activity fell to a five-month low of 120.1 in the July 26 week from 121.3 the prior week. The index's growth rate, which smoothes out weekly volatility, fell to 3.4% from 4.8%. The stock market drop is causing some softness in the economy, but not pointing to a double dip, ECRI's research director said.

ECRI's ...

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