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Soaring Energy Prices Could Derail Economy, Force Early Fed Move Crude Poses Two Threats Consumers may cut back elsewhere, and oil could spark broader price hikes.(A)
Byline: DONALD H. GOLD
Oil prices have some economists worried about this recovery.
They've risen fast. West Texas crude has surged more than 40% since mid-January. It pushed above $26 a barrel on Thursday.
And it's more than just the knee-jerk reaction to demand or forecasts of more demand. Three or four dollars is a war premium, experts say, reflecting fear a U.S. invasion of Iraq will disrupt supply.
"We know that oil price gains act like a tax," said Anirvan Banerji, director of research at the Economic Cycle Research Institute in New York. "It has the potential to hurt consumer spending."
It could also hasten what many see as an inevitable Federal Reserve tightening later this year.
Paul Kasriel, director of economic research at Northern Trust Co. in Chicago, says soaring oil could "prompt the Fed to tighten more aggressively than otherwise."
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