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Expect Deeper Handles At End Of Bear Markets.(A)(INVESTOR'S CORNER)
Byline: CRAIG SHAW
Along with showing the proper slope and position, a sound handle should be shallow. The only exception comes when a nasty bear drags down leading stocks, producing exaggerated bases.
A proper handle forms in the upper half of a base and slants downward in light trade. In addition, the handle should drop no more than 12% to 15% from its peak. This modest decline shakes out weak holders and gets rid of selling pressure so the stock can climb unencumbered.
But toward the end of a bear market, steep declines in the major indexes can cause handles to fall more sharply. The stock can still be sound if the dip in the handle is considerably less than the percentage decline in the overall base.
To calculate the decline, figure out the percentage difference between the base's peak and trough. Do the same with the handle. The base's correction should always exceed that of the handle.
The Nasdaq's shakeout in fall 1998 produced steep handles in several leading stocks. After falling 27% in six weeks, the composite recovered half its gains. But starting Sept. 28, the index dived 22% in just two weeks, touching 17-month lows.
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