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Bullish Scenarios Are Emerging About War's Economic Impacts; Fast Resolution Is Key.(A)
Byline: JED GRAHAM
A war on Iraq could boost the global economy by eliminating a terrorist threat and releasing fresh oil supplies onto world markets, a senior Commerce Department official said Wednesday.
The comments in Poland by Under Secretary Grant Aldonas come amid the latest diplomatic wrangling over sending weapons inspectors to Iraq.
They also come as economists here factor a war into their forecasts -- and also arrive at generally bullish conclusions.
Aldonas told a news conference war is not inevitable and the impact on the world economy would hinge on how long a conflict lasts.
But the combined effect of removing a source of terror and opening the spigot on Iraqi oil "would certainly have a profound effect . . . for those countries that are manufacturers and oil consumers," he said.
Aldonas spoke a day after Supachai Panitchpakdi, director general of the World Trade Organization, said an Iraq war could have a limited, but negative, impact on the world economy.
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