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Bonds Pointing To Another Fed Rate Cut As Markets Digest Purchaser, Retail Data; 2-Yr Yield Under Fed Funds; Historically that's signaled a Fed easing shortly later, but some skeptics remain.(A)
Byline: CHRISTINA WISE
Though a weak report on Chicago area manufacturing raised concerns Monday that the economy has stumbled again, plunging bond yields and hints from the Fed spawned hopes of another interest rate cut.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index tumbled to 48.1 in September from 54.9 the month before. That was far lower than the 53.0 economists expected and puts the index on recession turf.
The new order index dropped to 49.2 from 55.8 in August. Order backlogs fell to 39.9 from 48.3 the month before. Production slowed to 52.8 from 57.1, while inventories dropped to 39.3 from 48.3.
Though the Chicago report is regional, economists watch it for clues to the Institute of Supply Management Index, which will be released today at 10 a.m. EDT.
A report from the Chicago Fed wasn't much more encouraging. The agency's National Activity Index sank to -0.44, its lowest level in eight months, from -0.04 in July. Production and employment were particularly weak.
Weak September sales numbers from Wal-Mart Stores and others also added to double-dip worries.
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