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Can Consumer Carry Load Again In 2003? Key Variable Is Jobs If unemployment holds or falls, folks will spend and confidence will rise.(A)
Byline: CHRISTINA WISE
For more than two years in this rough economy -- as business spending dried up, manufacturing tanked and unemployment rolls swelled -- the American consumer has continued to spend, acting like Atlas holding up the world.
That spending helped cushion what otherwise would have been a more painful economic downturn here and overseas.
Personal spending grew 2.5% in 2001, despite the recession that began in the first quarter, and Americans continued to spend into '02. Third-quarter spending was up 4.2% from the same period the year before.
But with consumer debt continuing to hit record highs, how long can consumers keep up the pace?
Some say for a while.
"We should expect somewhat of a deceleration, not a decline, just a softer pace of growth," said Rich Yamarone, chief economist with Argus Research.
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