Consumer Plans To Purchase New PCs Rise To Highest Mark In Nearly A Year; 40% Of Domestic Market.(A)(IBD/TIPP POLL)

Byline: PATRICK SEITZ

The number of U.S. consumers planning to buy a new personal computer within the next six months rose in February to its highest level in at least 11 months, a new poll shows. The latest IBD/TIPP Home Computer Purchase Index shows pent-up demand for new PCs. The data indicate that consumers, who account for about 40% of U.S. PC sales, are poised to lead a long-awaited resurgence in this market. "We are into an upgrade cycle," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. IBD's polling partner has been collecting PC purchase intent data since April 2002. In February, 29% of people surveyed said they were either very likely or somewhat likely to buy a PC within the next six months. That figure was 26% in January and 23% in December.

Expressed in an index, the PC purchase intent was 24.5 in February, up from a low of 19.8 in December. The previous high was 23.6 last July. The index ranges from 0 to 100. The higher the number, the stronger the intent to buy a PC. The results are based on a random phone survey of 900 adults. Factors behind the uptick in computer demand include the aging installed base of PCs and the growth of broadband Internet services and home networking, which require better PCs, Mayur says.

The purchase horizon of six months would include the income-tax refund period, Mayur says. Some people already might be planning where to spend their refund, he says.

Plus, parents might be planning ahead to buy PCs for children, such as for graduation gifts or for students going away to college.

But analysts with market researchers International Data Corp. and NPD Techworld say the IBD poll results don't agree with what they've seen recently. They believe consumers have grown more cautious about PC purchases because of concerns about the economy and a possible war with Iraq.

In February, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell to its lowest mark in 25 months. Other measures of consumer sentiment have fallen to near-decade lows as Americans grew more worried about the effects of the U.S.-Iraq standoff on jobs and oil prices.