Market Tracker Says Tech Growth Predictions Were On The Mark.(A)(Q AND A)

Byline: MIKE ANGELL

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. Just ask George Colony.

As the chief executive of Forrester Research Inc. in Cambridge, Mass., Colony is paid to predict the impact of technology on business.

His prediction for 2003? Tech spending should grow slightly. He says the economy still needs to recover from a hangover inflicted by a $65 billion binge in tech spending.

Some of that hangover stems from optimistic forecasts about the impact of technology on the economy. Once-hot tech companies used market studies from Forrester, International Data Corp. and others to lay claim to multibillion dollar markets.

For example, Commerce One Inc. and Ariba Inc. included Forrester research in their 1999 initial stock filings to suggest the market for their services could reach $1.3 trillion by 2003. The two companies are expected to have combined revenue of $382 million this year.

Colony says companies misquoted Forrester data to sell stock. He adds that a 2001 audit of Forrester research showed only three of 14 of its market-size forecasts were high.