A Hollow Triumph?(Olusegun Obasanjo's election in Nigeria)

He waddles like a small bear and smiles like a favorite uncle, but when he speaks--or rather growls--people tend to sit up. Gruff old soldier, international statesman and born-again Christian, 66-year-old Olusegun Obasanjo seemed likely last weekend to win re-election as president of Nigeria. In addition, Obasanjo's People's Democratic Party (PDP) won a solid majority in the Nigerian Parliament. The voting wasn't free of controversy--Obasanjo's chief rival, Muhammadu Buhari, charged that some of his supporters were violently intimidated and ballot papers were delivered late or not at all in some districts. Still, the election was shaping up as a triumph in one important respect: it would be the first time in Nigeria's 43 years of independence that the government has successfully passed from one civilian administration to another.

That's an achievement but, if he wins, Obasanjo will have to tackle the deep-rooted problems that he failed to address during his first four years as president. Analysts say he must crack down on corruption, reorganize Nigeria's top-heavy federal system and mend the Muslim- Christian divide that has caused the deaths of thousands in recent years. (Nigeria has more Christians and Muslims, almost equally divided, than any other country in Africa.)

In addition, Obasanjo has to sort out the volatile politics of the oil- rich Niger Delta and placate locals who demand a greater share of the wealth that comes from under their feet. Oil accounts for 70 percent of the country's economic output. In March, fierce battles in the Delta region between hired gangs of local bosses quickly turned into a war between ethnic groups. Oil companies shut down their operations, costing Nigeria 40 percent of its production. "There was no real reform in the first term," says one Western diplomat in Lagos. "Everyone hopes that now he will be more radical."

Nigeria is not just another African country in trouble. It is the giant of West Africa, the world's largest black nation, with some 120 million inhabitants. It is also the world's sixth largest oil producer, providing 10 percent of U.S. oil imports. Production is expected to double by the end of the decade. But Nigerians are poorer today than they were at independence in 1960. Per capita income has fallen from about $1,000 a year in 1980 to less than $300 today. Economic growth has stayed at about 3 percent annually--barely enough to keep up with the population-growth rate. Outside of the oil industry, bad governance, weak laws and Nigeria's terrible reputation for corruption scare off foreign investment. Not for nothing is Obasanjo's government nicknamed the Money Republic.

Some critics worry that Obasanjo is trying to take the ...