APS Diplomat News Service articles from July 2008

APS Diplomat News Service archives from July 2008

Paper Oil Prices Driven Up By Israel-Iran War Talk; Syria-Israeli Talks Continue.
July 7, 2008... *** Kuwait's Oil CEO Shuwaib Says KPC Has Begun Preparing For An Alternative To The Hormuz Route For Its Exports - But Iran's Velayati Has Just Given A Hint That Tehran Could Be Ready For A Compromise Deal With The UNSC 5+ Germany - And Some...

Tehran Hints At Compromise With UNSC 5+Germany.(United Nations Security Council)
July 7, 2008... 'Ali-Akbar Velayati, a former foreign minister and now top adviser to the Supreme Leader of Iran's Shi'ite theocracy, Ayatullah 'Ali Khamenei, on July 1 indicated that Tehran could look favourably on an international offer put to it on June 14...

IRGC Warnings.(Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps)
July 7, 2008... IRGC head Ja'fari told the state-owned Jam-e Jam newspaper of June 28 that Iranian retaliation for a strike on its nuclear facilities could include blocking oil routes and striking Israel with long-range missiles. He said: "Any confrontation...

Israel-Syria Talks Resume.(Brief article)
July 7, 2008... The third round of indirect Syrian-Israeli negotiations in Turkey began last week. This track is progressing despite what is happening between Iran and each of the US and Israel. But Assad's regime has made two conditions clear: While the...

Israeli-US War Talk.
July 7, 2008... Ex-Mossad (Israeli intelligence) chief Shatai Shavit told The Sunday Telegraph the "worst-case scenario" was that Tehran would develop nuclear weapons within a year, and, therefore, require Israel to strike at Iran. But Western military experts...

Hamas Raises Shalit Price.(Gilad Shalit)
July 7, 2008... Hamas on June 30 said Israel's June 29 approval of the prisoner exchange deal with Hizbullah was a victory for the "qualitative balance of power" imposed by the Shi'ite "Lebanese resistance" - i.e., the Lebanon offshoot of Iran's Shi'ite...

UK Declares Hizbullah's Guerrilla Wing 'Terrorist'.
July 7, 2008... The British government has declared Hizbullah's military wing "terrorist" for its alleged involvements with rogue Iran-backed Shi'ite militias in Iraq and other countries. The British ambassador to Beirut on July 2 held a press conference to...

Syria Is Walking A Tightrope Between US-Led Alliance & Iran's Axis Of 'Divine' Forces.
July 14, 2008... *** Iran's War Games & Words With The US & Israel Are Just Part Of A Bargaining Race, Bazaari Style, But The Chances Of A Real War Are Up At 40% *** Gazprom's Miller On July 9 Said He Offered Qadhafi For Russia's NOC To Buy All Of Libya's...

The French Role.(peace talks)
July 14, 2008... Unlike his pro-Hariri predecessor Jacques Chirac, President Nicolas Sarkozy is engaging all the main actors in Israel, Lebanon and Syria, seeking to revive French influences in these three states and beyond. Although he is strongly opposed to...

A Trap For Hizbullah & Assad?(Brief article)
July 14, 2008... Writing in Gulf News of July 8, Middle East analyst Linda S. Heard said: "The jury is still out as to whether Israel will make good on its threats to strike Iran, but if it is serious then removing Syria from the game with promises of a peace...

Turkey's Strife Deepens.
July 14, 2008... Ankara's top prosecutor is on the verge of issuing a 2,500-page indictment against the AKP which promises to shine a bright light on the deepening divisions in Turkish society. At issue are two cases which could redefine both Islamic politics...

Hizbullah & Israel Sign Prisoner Swap Deal.(Brief article)
July 14, 2008... Israel and Hizbullah on July 6 signed a UN-mediated prisoner exchange deal and the date for the swap. Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrullah and Israeli PM Olmert signed the deal under which the Jewish state will release five Lebanese...

Iran Revives Query About 4 Missing - A Message To Israel.
July 14, 2008... Sharpening its image contest with Israel in the stand-off on Tehran's nuclear and regional ambitions, the theocracy has resurrected questions about the fate of four Iranians who went missing near Beirut in 1982 while Israeli forces occupied the...

Iran Drums Up 2,000-Km Missile Test - A Message To Israel & US.
July 14, 2008... The IRGC in a war-game on July 9-11 test-fired many missiles, including one Tehran described as having the 2,000-km range to reach Israel. The tests drew sharp American criticism and came after the Iranians on July 8 threatened to retaliate...

Israeli Spy Jet.(Brief article)
July 14, 2008... A modified business jet which could be key to any Israeli air strike on Iran on July 9 went on display ahead of its first exhibition at an international air show. The Israeli Air Force has taken delivery of three of the Gulfstream G550 business...

Questions On Iran Missiles & US Reactions.
July 14, 2008... The FT on July 11 said IRGC's PR arm, Sepah News, may have doctored an image purporting to show the July 9 missile, after having been apparently digitally altered to show four successful missile launches. This image was published by a large...

Sudan's Bashir Joins Syria's Assad In Providing Arab Rulers With New Lessons.(Omar Hassan al-Bashir)
July 21, 2008... *** Assad Thinks He Has Got A Way Out Of The Trap Set In The Lebanese Murder Cases - A French Plan Which Will Get The UN Court To Focus On Mid-Level Actors Paying The Price, While He's Set For A Bigger Role In Line With Western Interest In...

Bashir Could Escape ICC Indictment - So Does Assad In Hariri Case.(Omar Hasan Ahmad al-Bashir, International Criminal Court)
July 21, 2008... On July 16 Reuters quoted Western diplomats at the UN as saying Bashir might escape the ICC charges if he brought to justice two lower-ranking men suspected of mass killings. The suggestion is similar to a "way out" being proposed to Syrian...

Saudi King 'Abdullah Opens Inter-Faith Conference In Madrid.(Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud)
July 21, 2008... King 'Abdullah ibn 'Abdul-'Aziz of Saudi Arabia on July 16 opened a meeting of Muslims, Christians, Jews and other believers in Madrid, which he has sponsored, with a call to shun the extremist violence which has tarnished the reputation of...

GCC States & Iran Are Wasting Huge Wealth, With Serious Global Implications.(Gulf Cooperation Council)
July 28, 2008... *** With Iran Now Spending Billions On Its Nuclear And Regional Ambitions At The Expense Of Its Economy And 22M Of Its People Who Are Below The Poverty Line, Its Shi'ite Theocracy Is No Match To A Saudi Arabia Earning $1 Bn Per Day And Spending...

The Sunni-Shi'ite Propaganda War.
July 28, 2008... King 'Abdullah ibn 'Abdul-'Aziz of Saudi Arabia, which is earning over $1 bn per day, had a successful inter-faith conference in Madrid on July 16-18 which, apart from having over-shadowed the struggle of Sudan's "Islamic dictatorship" against...

Iran Expert Paints Dire Picture.
July 28, 2008... In an article published on July 16 by Asia Times Online, Hossein Askari, Iranian-born professor of international affairs at George Washington University, wrote: "In Iran the situation is depressing". Iran's population had "about doubled since...

Threat To Iran's Navy In Hormuz.
July 28, 2008... In an article published on July 15 by Gulf News, former US ambassador to Bahrain Sam Zakhem warned that an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, in the event of war, would have a devastating effect on Iran's navy. He wrote: "Iran...

GCC Asset Bubbles Ahead.(Gulf Cooperation Council)(Brief article)
July 28, 2008... The GCC states offer a safe haven with their mounting oil windfall. Oil prices at $130/b add $1 bn a day to the region's current account surplus, according to Merrill Lynch's latest report. The report titled "Economic Analysis: Emerging EMEA...

Saudi Oil GDP Rising 5.6%.(Saudi Arabia's gross domestic product)
July 28, 2008... Arab News on July 22 highlighted a report from the National Commercial Bank (NCB), Saudi Arabia's largest bank, which said the kingdom's economy was heading for robust growth despite the less benign global economic outlook and it was unlikely...

Riyadh To Have SWF.(sovereign wealth fund)
July 28, 2008... The government has approved the setting up of Sanabil al-Saudia (or Sanabel), the kingdom's first sovereign wealth fund (SWF), which will have an initial capital of 20 bn riyals ($5.3 bn). Sanabel will be a wholly owned entity of the Public...

Doubts About Saudi Aramco Oil Production Capacity.(Brief article)
July 28, 2008... BusinessWeek has said Saudi Aramco's long-term sustainable crude oil output capacity will be 10.4m b/d after 2010, far below its projected 12.5m b/d level by end-2009. This has alarmed traders in paper oil at NYMEX in New York and ICE in...

Islamic Bonds Defy Gloom.
July 28, 2008... Islamic corporate bond issuance in the GCC area has soared in the past year despite a credit crisis and deteriorating global economic outlook. Corporate bonds issued in the area rose to $17 bn at end-June 2008, up from $14.5 bn at the end-2007...

How Western Wealth & Human Resources Migrate To GCC Region.(Gulf Cooperation Council states)
July 28, 2008... An April survey by Chicago-based consultancy Smart Cube said that, while US house prices tumbled and bonuses were cut, the pay of those still in work in the US financial services industry may drop by 20%. Not so in the GCC region, where bonuses...

Abu Dhabi Ventures Into Aero-Space Industry Services & The Challenge Of Education.
July 28, 2008... Few could doubt the grandiose ambitions of Abu Dhabi as the once sleepy emirate seeks to reinvent itself. The oil-rich capital of the UAE has already done deals which will see a Louvre and Guggenheim museums grace one island. Another island...

UAE To Invest In Kazakh Agriculture.(United Arab Emirates)(Brief article)
July 28, 2008... The UAE is seeking to invest in agricultural projects in Kazakhstan as part of its efforts to secure food supplies. Visiting Astana, UAE President and Abu Dhabi Ruler Shaikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan on July 16 said the UAE was looking to...

A Fateful MENA Choice Between Crops & Water.(Middle East and North Africa)
July 28, 2008... Global food shortages have placed the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in a quandary, as they are forced to choose between growing more crops to feed an expanding population or preserving their already scant supply of water. Oil-rich GCC...