National Institute Economic Review articles from October 2007

National Institute Economic Review archives from October 2007

The world economy.(AT A GLANCE ...)
October 1, 2007... * The global expansion will ease only moderately next year, as world GDP growth slows from 5.2 per cent in 2007 to 4.7 per cent in 2008. * The main risk to this forecast is that the credit crisis which started in early August takes a turn...

The UK economy.(AT A GLANCE ...)
October 1, 2007... * Growth will slip from 3.1 per cent in 2007 to 2.2 per cent in 2008 and 2.3 per cent in 2009. * Consumer spending growth will fall from 2.9 per cent this year to 1.9 per cent in 2008 and 1.8 per cent in 2009. * Inflation will remain...

Northern rock: solutions and problems.(Northern Rock PLC)(Company overview)
October 1, 2007... Introduction September brought the United Kingdom its first mass market bank run. Although there had been bank runs in the nineteenth century, with the last in 1866, very few people then had bank accounts so the runs were not in any sense...

Global prospects for medium-term growth.(The World Economy)
October 1, 2007... Defaults on subprime mortgages in the US have triggered jitters in global financial markets over the course of this year, leading to a sharp rise in certain types of risk premia over the summer. The Federal Reserve and the ECB responded by...

Unemployment and employment in North America.(The World Economy)
October 1, 2007... Aggregate GDP growth in North America rose to 0.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2007, from a quarterly rise of just 0.2 per cent in the previous quarter. However, rather than reflecting a healthier outlook for these economies, the...

Higher inflation and monetary policy tightening in East Asia.(The World Economy)
October 1, 2007... Our forecasts for China, South Korea, Taiwan and Australia are set out in table 8. Output rose briskly across most of the major East Asian economies in the second quarter of this year, although the Japanese economy decelerated. Hong Kong and...

The impact of financial market turbulence on the Euro Area.(The World Economy)
October 1, 2007... Real GDP growth in the Euro Area is projected to remain above 2 1/2 per cent in 2007 before slowing to 21/4 per cent in 2008-9. Our growth forecasts from 2007 have been revised down by 1/4 percentage point per annum since July. The revision for...

Banking crises and economic growth.(The World Economy)
October 1, 2007... Over the summer of 2007 problems began to emerge in financial markets as a result of debt defaults, particularly on US housing lending to individuals with low credit ratings. The globalisation of financial markets has meant that such risks are...

Prospects for the UK economy.
October 1, 2007... The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Abbey plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Ernst and Young LLP, Marks and Spencer plc, The National Grid Company plc, Nomura Research Institute Europe Ltd,...

Interest rates and the UK economy.
October 1, 2007... At the beginning of 2007 inflation was in excess of its upper threshold of 3 per cent and the Governor of the Bank of England had to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining why this had happened and what measures were to be taken to remedy...

Active labour market policies: introduction.
October 1, 2007... Over the past decade active labour market policy has been an integral part of the Labour Government's strategy for achieving employment opportunity for all, encompassing Welfare-to-Work programmes such as the various New Deals for the...

Compulsion in active labour market programmes.
October 1, 2007... This paper examines compulsion in active labour market programmes (ALMP). When an unemployed worker has to participate in a programme in order to remain eligible for benefits there are two separate effects. First, there is the treatment effect,...

The effect of pathways to work on labour market outcomes.
October 1, 2007... This article summarises the recent evaluation of Pathways to Work--a package of reforms aimed at encouraging employment among people claiming incapacity benefits (Bewley et al., 2007). The results show an increase of over 7 percentage points in...

Cost-benefit analysis of psychological therapy.
October 1, 2007... At present six million people are suffering from clinical depression or anxiety disorders, but only a quarter of them are in treatment. NICE Guidelines prescribe the offer of evidence-based psychological therapy, but they are not implemented,...

Danish labour market activation policies.
October 1, 2007... Under the heading of flexicurity, Danish labour market activation policies are receiving international attention because of their perceived ability both to curb unemployment and to boost employment. Indeed, the objectives, target groups and...