National Institute Economic Review articles from October 2005

National Institute Economic Review archives from October 2005

The world economy.(AT A GLANCE ...)
October 1, 2005... * Global GDP will grow by 4.4 per cent a year in 2005 and 2006. * Inflation in the OECD will rise from 1.7 per cent last year to 2.1 per cent in 2005, the highest since 2001. * The United States will grow by 3 1/2 per cent a year in...

The UK economy.(AT A GLANCE ...)(economic development)
October 1, 2005... * Oil price rises have depressed trend output and the economy has little spare capacity. * GDP will grow by only 1.7 per cent in 2005 and 2.3 per cent in 2006. * Over the next two years, consumer-price inflation is forecast to be...

Commentary: oil and the economy.(petroleum prices effect world economic conditions)
October 1, 2005... Introduction Between 2000 and 2003 OPEC maintained a target range for the price of oil of US$22-28 per barrel. In early September of this year the price of oil reached US$67 per barrel. Such a rapid change in the price of oil was not...

Global impact of financial market and oil price developments.(THE WORLD ECONOMY)
October 1, 2005... World growth Global growth was at its strongest for over 20 years in 2004, and is expected to decline from 5.1 per cent to 4.4 per cent in 2005. Growth stabilised in the first half of 2005, after decelerations in the US in the first half...

Impact of energy prices in North America.(The World Economy)
October 1, 2005... In the second quarter of 2005, GDP growth slowed somewhat in the US and Canada. While output in the US expanded by nearly 3.6 per cent per annum, it marked the fourth consecutive quarter of decline in the headline growth rate. With the notable...

Twin giants to lead buoyant growth in Asia.(The World Economy)(economic development in China and Japan)
October 1, 2005... The dip in import demand from China in early 2005 proved short-lived. Merchandise import values rose by 23.5 per cent in August and September relative to a year earlier, which was double the average annual growth recorded in the first half of...

Fiscal balance to worsen in the Euro Area.(The World Economy)(economic development)
October 1, 2005... Economic growth in the Euro Area remains weak, with GDP projected to rise by 1 1/4 per cent in 2005 before accelerating to around 2 per cent per annum from 2006. These figures reflect only a slight downward revision to our July forecast, which...

Prospects for the UK economy.(THE UK ECONOMY)
October 1, 2005... The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Abbey plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Ernst and Young LLP, Marks and Spencer plc, The National Grid Company plc, Nomura Research Institute Europe Ltd,...

Introduction.(demographic developments of Europe)
October 1, 2005... Two demographic developments with important consequences for European economies in the coming years are population ageing and immigration. These developments are likely to become increasingly linked, as a declining and ageing European labour...

Europe and its fertility: from low to lowest low.
October 1, 2005... This paper documents the fundamental changes in family formation that took place in Europe during the last two decades of the twentieth century, as well as some possible explanations for these changes. First, European youth have postponed key...

Demographic change and the European Union labour market.
October 1, 2005... If current demographic trends continue, the combined population of the twenty-five countries that currently make up the European Union will age rapidly and decline in size in the coming decades. As the EU population ages and declines, so will...

Stochastic infinite horizon forecasts for us social security finances.
October 1, 2005... Even over a 75-year horizon, forecasts of PAYGO pension finances are misleadingly optimistic. Infinite horizon forecasts are necessary, but are they possible? We build on earlier stochastic forecasts of the US Social Security trust fund which...

Immigrant performance and selective immigration policy: a European perspective.
October 1, 2005... The European Union aims at a stronger participation by its population in work to foster growth and welfare. There are concerns about the attachment of immigrants to the labour force, and discussions about the necessary policy responses....

European asylum policy.
October 1, 2005... Policy towards asylum seekers has been a controversial topic for more than a decade. Rising numbers of asylum applications have been met with ever-tougher policies to deter them. Following a period of policy harmonisation, the EU has reached a...

Statistical appendix.(economic indicators of United Kingdom)(Illustration)
October 1, 2005... Data are included up to the end of the latest quarter, if they are available at the time of going to press. Table 1. Gross domestic product [pounds sterling] billion, 2002 prices, seasonally adjusted Final consumption...