National Institute Economic Review articles from October 2004

National Institute Economic Review archives from October 2004

The world economy.(At A Glance ...)
October 1, 2004... * The world economy will grow by 4.1 per cent this year, 4.0 per cent in 2005, and 4.2 per cent in 2006. * The Chinese economy will make a soft landing, with growth moderating to 8.1 per cent in 2005 from 9.1 per cent this year. * The...

The UK economy.(At A Glance)
October 1, 2004... * The economy will grow by 3.2 per cent in 2004 and by 2.8 per cent a year in both 2005 and 2006. * Consumer spending will grow by 3.1 per cent in 2004, moderating to 2.0 per cent in 2005 and 1.9 per cent in 2006. * There is a...

The UK economy.(Commentary)
October 1, 2004... Despite the pause in economic growth in the early summer in the United States and in the third quarter in the United Kingdom, this year is likely to see a fast rate of growth for the world economy. We have, of course, also seen rising fuel and...

Global growth and the rising oil price.(The World Economy)
October 1, 2004... Following four quarters of exceptionally rapid expansion, growth in the US, China and Japan, the world's three largest economies in purchasing power parity terms, slowed in the second quarter of 2004. However, with growth remaining near trend...

Interest rates and inflation expectations.(The World Economy)
October 1, 2004... In our last forecast, we discussed the recent rise in global inflationary pressures. These pressures reflect emergence from the global recession of 2001-2 and monetary and fiscal laxity in several of the world's largest economies, as well as...

Employment in the US and Germany.(The World Economy)
October 1, 2004... Another factor that has kept inflation in check in the US is the apparent rise in the rate of technical progress. This has allowed output growth to rise, without putting upward pressure on inflation. The benefits of higher productivity have...

Monetary tightening underway in North America.(The World Economy)
October 1, 2004... In the second quarter of this year both the US and Canada recorded solid GDP growth, with US output expanding by 0.8 per cent and Canadian GDP posting a 1.1 per cent gain. However, the underlying situation is somewhat different in the two...

Growth momentum slows in Asia.(The World Economy)
October 1, 2004... In the first half of 2004, economic growth in many Asian countries hit highs unseen in recent years. This was likely to be the peak of the cycle as the latest data releases indicate a slowdown in growth momentum during the third quarter in...

Euro Area recovery falters.(The World Economy)
October 1, 2004... Following a strong acceleration of growth in the first quarter of the year, the Euro Area recovery hesitated slightly in the second quarter, with growth slowing to 0.5 per cent from a rise of 0.7 per cent in the previous quartet. The Euro Area...

Prospects for the UK economy.(The UK Economy)
October 1, 2004... The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Abbey pie, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Ernst and Young LLP, GlaxoSmithKline plc, Marks and Spencer pie, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (Europe) Ltd, The...

UK savings and pensions.(The UK Economy)
October 1, 2004... The lack of savings by the UK personal (and private) sector has been a matter of concern to us for some time, in part because it has been clear that inadequate provision has been made for future pension liabilities. The recently published...

The UK graduate labour market: introduction.
October 1, 2004... The remarkable growth in annual university graduate output in the UK within the space of a few years in the early 1990s has provided a rich field of study for labour market and higher education (HE) researchers. Indeed, in many ways this...

Is mass higher education working? Evidence from the labour market experiences of recent graduates.
October 1, 2004... This paper uses a variety of recent sources of information to explore the labour market experiences of chose who gained a degree in the 1980s and 1990s. Specifically, we address the issue of 'overeducation'--the view that the expansion of...

The widening socio-economic gap in UK higher education.
October 1, 2004... This paper provides up-to-date empirical evidence on the socio-economic gap in higher education (HE) participation, for the period spanning the introduction of tuition fees. We assess whether the gap has widened and ask whether the...

The rate of return to teaching: how does it compare to other graduate jobs?
October 1, 2004... The problem of recruiting graduates into the teaching profession and retaining them has bedevilled recent UK governments. An obvious question to ask is why is teaching so relatively unattractive for graduates. This paper presents a careful...

Academic salaries in the UK and US.
October 1, 2004... We examine the wages of graduates inside and outside of academe in both the UK and US. We find that in both the UK and the US an average graduate working in the HE sector would earn less over his or her lifetime than graduates working in...

Statistical appendix.(Illustration)
October 1, 2004... Data are included up to the end of the latest quarter, if they are available at the time of going to press. Table 1. Gross domestic product billion [pounds sterling], 2001 prices, seasonally adjusted Final consumption...