National Institute Economic Review articles from October 2003

National Institute Economic Review archives from October 2003

The world economy.(At A Glance ..., Japanese economy, gross domestic product)
October 1, 2003... * The world outlook has brightened: we are now expecting global GDP growth of 3.5 per cent in 2003 and 4.0 per cent in 2004. * World trade will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2003 and by 8.8 per cent in 2004. * The United States will underpin...

The UK economy.(economic forecasts, gross domestic product)
October 1, 2003... * After growing by 2 per cent this year, the economy will expand by 2.6 per cent in 2004 and 2.7 per cent in 2005. * Consumer spending will increase by 2.4 per cent this year, slowing to 2 per cent in 2004 and 1.7 per cent in 2005. *...

Commentary: the UK economy.(housing prices, economic forecasts)
October 1, 2003... Introduction The second quarter saw a marked acceleration in the economy's growth rate to 0.6 per cent per quarter and the first estimate for the third quarter suggests that this faster rate of growth has persisted. This has to be seen in...

Recent economic developments.(The World Economy, housing investments, inflation analysis)
October 1, 2003... The growth outlook in our forecast reported in Table 1 looks slightly more robust than it did before the summer, with noticeable upward revisions to both 2003 and 2004, as well as to the medium term outlook. Although the prospects for the...

Is the US facing a jobless recovery?(US recession, employment growth, economic conditions)
October 1, 2003... The period following the US recession of 1990-91 has often been referred to as the "jobless recovery", due to weak employment growth in the first 18 months of expansion, and parallels have been drawn with the current recovery in the US. Since...

Prospects for North America and Japan.(private sector investments, economic indicators, housing investments)
October 1, 2003... United States Our upward revision to growth in the US in 2003 and 2004 since July reflects a stronger than expected outcome for investment in the first half of 2003 and a surge in government spending associated with the Iraq war. Private...

Prospects for the European Union.(gross domestic product, economic conditions, inflation analysis)
October 1, 2003... In the first half of this year, the Euro Area economy continued to lag behind much of the rest of the world. After stagnating in the first quarter, GDP contracted by 0.1 per cent in the second quarter following an average quarterly expansion of...

Sweden and EMU.(Economic and Monetary Union, European currency)
October 1, 2003... On 14 September, Sweden voted against adopting the euro, with 56.1 per cent voting against and 41.8 per cent voting in favour of the single European currency, with a strong turnout of 81.2 per cent. This was a blow to both the government and...

The UK economy.(economic conditions, gross domestic product)(Illustration)
October 1, 2003... The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Ernst and Young LLP, GlaxoSmithKline, Marks and Spencer plc, Morgan Stanley Dean Witter (Europe) Ltd, Morley Fund Management,...

Consumption and housing wealth in the UK.(consumption behavior)
October 1, 2003... Consumption behaviour in the UK is frequently seen as different from that in other countries. The relationship between the housing market and consumption is discussed at length in HM Treasury (2003). The housing market, which has been...

Special issue on policy evaluation: introduction.(British social policies)
October 1, 2003... Although the British Government has a long tradition of policy evaluation, until recently it has concentrated on a limited range of types of policy and using a limited range of methods. Thus, overseas aid projects have long been subject to the...

An evaluation of business start-up support for young people.(self employment, business enterprises)(Illustration)
October 1, 2003... The article describes some evaluation findings from a longitudinal study of young people receiving business start-up assistance, through the Prince's Trust (with financial support from the Government). Unusually for evaluations of...

Evaluation using random assignment experiments: demonstrating the effectiveness of earnings supplements.(social experiments)
October 1, 2003... The UK is preparing to start one of the largest random assignment evaluations of a new social policy that has ever been undertaken in Europe or North America. This juncture is a useful time to examine the merits of random assignment evaluation...

Measuring the macroeconomic effects of reducing benefit dependency.(macroeconomic implications, UK economic policy)
October 1, 2003... We construct a framework for evaluating the macroeconomic impact on the UK economy of policies that are aimed at reducing the number of people receiving social security benefits by helping them into employment. By means of model simulation we...

Economic evaluation of complex health and social care interventions.(best use of scarce resources, complex health and social care problems)
October 1, 2003... The use of economic evaluation in relatively complex areas of health and social care has been limited. The level of complexity is influenced by the nature of the problems and interventions under evaluation, being dependent upon the degree of...

Statistical appendix.(economic indicators, gross domestic product)(Illustration)
October 1, 2003... Data are included up to the end of the latest quarter, if they are available at the time of going to press. Table 1. Gross domestic product [pounds sterling] billion, 2000 prices, seasonally adjusted Final...