National Institute Economic Review articles from October 2002

National Institute Economic Review archives from October 2002

The world economy. (At a Glance).
October 1, 2002... * We have lowered our forecast for OECD economic growth in 2003 to 2.4 per cent. * The world economy will grow more strongly, by 3.4 per cent, helped by a strong performance by China and India. * The United States will grow by 2.3 per...

The UK economy. (At a Glance).
October 1, 2002... * We have lowered our growth forecasts: we now expect GDP to increase by 1.4 per cent in 2002 and by 2.5 per cent in 2003 - about 3/4 percentage point lower in each year than the midpoint of the Treasury's budget forecasts. * The growth...

Commentary.
October 1, 2002... Introduction Two factors have served to worsen the economic outlook as compared to the picture in the early Summer. In this country, the signals from the data have been changed by the sharp fall of industrial output in June. The bulk of...

The world economy.
October 1, 2002... Section I. Recent economic developments Global economic activity strengthened considerably in the first half of this year, helped by a rebound in trade volumes and a marked recovery in industrial production. Although the rapid growth...

The UK economy.
October 1, 2002... The production of this forecast is supported by the Institute's Corporate Members: Arcadia Group plc, Bank of England, Barclays Bank plc, Dixons plc, Ernst and Young LLP, GlaxoSmithKline, INVESCO Europe Ltd, Marks and Spencer plc, Morgan...

Business cycle analysis.
October 1, 2002... In this issue of the Review we include four articles on different aspects of business cycles. We regard business cycles as the phenomenon whereby a number of different economic variables such as consumption and output tend to move together...

Have UK and Eurozone business cycles become more correlated?
October 1, 2002... Recent estimates suggest that the UK business cycle is closer to the Eurozone business cycle than it was in the early 1990s. This paper investigates whether this phenomenon has been accompanied by increased correlation between UK and Eurozone...

A long view of the UK business cycle.
October 1, 2002... We outline a number of 'stylised' facts on the UK business cycle obtained from analysis of the long-run UK annual dataset. The findings are to some extent standard. Consumption and investment are pro-cyclical, with productivity playing a...

Dating the business cycle in Britain.
October 1, 2002... The NIESR's monthly GDP series is an innovative feature; most GDP estimates are published at an annual, or quarterly frequency at best. For purposes of dating the business cycle the availability of this series is an asset, unexploited until...

The prediction of business cycle phases: financial variables and international linkages.
October 1, 2002... This paper discusses recent research at the Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research on the prediction of the expansion and recession phases of the business cycle for the UK, US, Germany, France and Italy. Financial variables are important...

Statistical Appendix.
October 1, 2002... Data are included up to the end of the latest quarter, if they are available at the time of going to press. Table 1 Gross domestic product [pounds sterlilng] billion, 1995 prices, Seasonally adjusted Final...