National Institute Economic Review articles from May 1996

National Institute Economic Review archives from May 1996

Commentary: the UK economy.
May 1, 1996... A further improvement in the inflationary situation leads us now to predict that there is a 50 per cent chance of the government meeting its inflation target of 2 1/2 per cent per annum in the year to 1996Q4. However, this situation is favourable...

The UK economy.
May 1, 1996... Section I. Recent Developments and Summary of the Forecast The UK economy now appears to be progressing along a path that is just consistent with the economic objectives of the government. Inflation is currently slightly above the 2 1/2 per...

The world economy. (includes related article on the 1995 economic slowdown in Germany and France)
May 1, 1996... Section I. Recent Economic Developments Introduction Economic growth slowed in most of the major industrialised countries over the course of last year. The slowdown has been particularly apparent in continental Europe, with GDP falling in...

The performance of National Institute economic forecasts. (National Institute of Economic and Social Research)
May 1, 1996... 1. Introduction In attempting to assess the reliability of economic forecasts it is important to bear in mind the truism that the behaviour of national economies is inherently uncertain. In view of this a proper description of the likely...

An assessment of OECD and UK leading indicators.
May 1, 1996... 1. Introduction Over the years economists have sought to develop a range of forecasting devices. The National Institute places a great deal of reliance on its macroeconomic models as forecasting tools. As a very minimum they provide a...

Forecast error bounds by stochastic stimulation.
May 1, 1996... 1. Introduction What can the National Institute model tell us about the accuracy of forecasting inflation and growth? We make 'point' forecasts over the short to medium term, and assess the accuracy of those forecasts by examining past...

What do comparisons of the last two economic recoveries tell us about the UK labour market?
May 1, 1996... There are signs that the UK labour market has behaved differently in the most recent economic recovery. After the end of the recession in 1992 unemployment began to fall much earlier than expected, whilst wage and price inflation remained very...

Graduate utilisation in British industry: the initial impact of mass higher education.
May 1, 1996... 1. Introduction(*) The recent growth in higher education participation rates in Britain has been so sudden and so rapid that there is now intense public interest in its effects on graduate employment and salary prospects. Particular concern...

Foreign direct investment in Central Europe since 1990: an econometric study.
May 1, 1996... 1. Introduction It is widely recognised that foreign direct investment (FDI) may have an important role to play in the transformation of the formerly centrally planned economies of Central and Eastern Europe. FDI provides a vital source of...